Nigeria’s oil export revenues may be facing a significant threat as Indonesia, one of its key crude oil importers, plans to substantially increase its energy imports from the United States.
- Indonesia plans to increase energy imports from the United States to address its trade surplus and avoid potential tariffs
- The shift in Indonesia’s energy imports could disrupt Nigeria’s key export market,
- Nigeria earned over $3.8 billion from crude oil and gas exports to Indonesia in 2023
This strategic shift from Nigeria’s oil exports is part of Indonesia’s efforts to address its trade imbalance with the U.S. and avoid a proposed 32% tariff on its exports.
Indonesia’s Energy Minister, Bahlil Lahadalia, confirmed that the country has finalized plans to increase imports of crude oil and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) from the U.S. by approximately $10 billion.
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This move is aimed at negotiating favorable trade deals and mitigating the impact of U.S. tariffs, potentially leading to reduced purchases from traditional suppliers such as Nigeria.
Indonesia’s strategy to eliminate its trade surplus with the U.S. and avoid a potential 32% tariff on its exports includes buying $18 billion to $19 billion worth of U.S. goods.
As part of this plan, the Energy Minister recommended increasing the country’s imports of U.S. liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and crude oil.
To accommodate these changes, Indonesia would need to reduce its LPG imports from other sources, potentially cutting back by 20% to 30%, depending on existing contracts.
This reorientation of energy imports could further impact Nigeria’s crude oil market share in Indonesia, deepening concerns over the future of Nigeria’s oil revenues.
Nigeria as Indonesia’s top crude supplier
Nigeria is one of Indonesia’s major crude oil suppliers, earning over $3.8 billion from crude oil and gas exports to the Southeast Asian nation in 2023.
Indonesia imported approximately 306,000 barrels of crude oil per day last year, with Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, and Angola as the top suppliers, according to Kpler data.
In contrast, U.S. imports accounted for only about 13,000 barrels per day.
Crude oil exports are a crucial source of foreign exchange for Nigeria, which relies heavily on oil sales to fund its budget and stabilize its economy.
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In 2023, Nigeria generated N29 trillion from crude oil exports, marking a significant 37% increase from the previous year.
However, with Indonesia now looking to increase its crude oil imports from the U.S., a major gap could form in Nigeria’s revenue stream.
This shift may disrupt one of Nigeria’s key export markets, placing further fiscal pressure on the country at a time when oil earnings are critical.
